Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.187544 0.223816 0.266842 0.322100 0.391845 0.477835 5.932577e-01
2025-08-03 0.149957 0.196058 0.257320 0.346453 0.475866 0.661894 9.590890e-01
2025-08-10 0.118356 0.166791 0.237583 0.352436 0.541914 0.857449 1.459283e+00
2025-08-17 0.092633 0.139034 0.212612 0.344085 0.588109 1.056581 2.128550e+00
2025-08-24 0.077487 0.123496 0.202442 0.357814 0.683799 1.414671 3.482347e+00
2025-08-31 0.065498 0.110168 0.192539 0.370096 0.790129 1.895045 5.850234e+00
2025-09-07 0.056254 0.099405 0.184477 0.384556 0.917890 2.576674 1.033884e+01
2025-09-14 0.048757 0.090097 0.176773 0.398145 1.061693 3.517172 1.910804e+01
2025-09-21 0.041468 0.079487 0.163381 0.393230 1.157306 4.480922 3.336201e+01
2025-09-28 0.032818 0.064199 0.135457 0.338670 1.056424 4.502497 4.138338e+01
2025-10-05 0.029319 0.059340 0.130882 0.349446 1.208561 6.156875 8.709161e+01
2025-10-12 0.026900 0.056374 0.130214 0.372881 1.445676 9.090424 2.320571e+02
2025-10-19 0.024609 0.053419 0.129387 0.398911 1.753328 14.140873 8.471313e+02
2025-10-26 0.022312 0.049957 0.126256 0.416535 2.063937 21.534489 4.070580e+03
2025-11-02 0.019778 0.045358 0.118514 0.412772 2.259178 29.673908 2.313732e+04
2025-11-09 0.017302 0.040418 0.108380 0.394028 2.338700 37.526200 1.786386e+05
2025-11-16 0.015774 0.037740 0.104694 0.403001 2.673622 57.655284 1.233420e+08
2025-11-23 0.014430 0.035301 0.101113 0.411177 3.047474 90.634779 NaN
2025-11-30 0.013304 0.033261 0.098329 0.422552 3.515168 151.227652 NaN
2025-12-07 0.012304 0.031397 0.095644 0.433539 4.048924 262.885414 NaN
2025-12-14 0.011180 0.028946 0.090107 0.424715 4.328891 396.540172 NaN
2025-12-21 0.009574 0.024774 0.077056 0.362635 3.683121 332.525116 NaN
2025-12-28 0.008966 0.023615 0.075410 0.372435 4.227360 620.463657 NaN